Guillotine League: Week 7 Post-Mortem

In this series, I track weekly progress in my guillotine league. For the main post, covering the league’s details and my overall Bid Low, Bid Late strategy, click here.

As I expected, I did not have too much trouble surviving Week 7. Three of my players – Cam Newton, Jarvis Landry, and Alshon Jeffery – scored over 20 points. Kapri Bibbs surprised with 4 receptions, 56 total yards and a touchdown, and Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins both had decent games. I had no right to expect anything from Damion Ratley, and really should have started Larry Fitzgerald instead and gotten his 14 points. Corey Davis and Joe Mixon disappointed, but in Mixon’s case it was due to lack of usage, as Cincinnati played from behind.

My 132.1 points put me in 3rd place out of the 11 remaining teams (I am currently 2nd, and guaranteed survival, before Monday night’s game). That good showing helps me feel okay about continuing to make low bids on the players expected to hit waivers this week, especially as other teams start to run out of money (all teams’ FAAB totals and key players are listed below).

Also helping is looking forward to next week’s matchups. Only one of my starters – the disappointing Corey Davis – is on bye next week, and I get Doug Baldwin back. Some of the other teams’ stars are on bye, including Melvin Gordon (on a weaker team with $0 FAAB left), Zeke Elliott (on a decent team with $180 FAAB), all the Falcons (Ryan, Jones, Sanu and Ito Smith are on the same team, which is decent and has $300 FAAB), and Keenan Allen (good team, $310 FAAB).

However, some of my players will face tough matchups (using the Harris index, it looks like Baldwin at Detroit and Watkins vs. Denver will be tough) and none face especially easy ones. On Week 9, Mixon will be on bye, so I will *really* need to find a good RB by then.

The team that will probably be eliminated this week will drop several good RBs to waivers: Kareem Hunt, LeSean McCoy, Dalvin Cook. Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs and Nelson Agholor will also hit the waivers. Once again, I will be tempted to bid high to try to get another starter, as I get nervous about the talent concentration in the league. I will have to force myself to remember my strategy, and remind myself that saving FAAB dollars is probably more important than adding a player this week.

My Week 7 Lineup

QB: Cam Newton 25.7
RB: Joe Mixon 8.1
RB: Kapri Bibbs 15.6
WR: Jarvis Landry 25.7
WR: Corey Davis 4
TE: Travis Kelce 14.5
Flex: Alshon Jeffery 21.8
Flex: Sammy Watkins 11.4
Flex: Damion Ratley 5.3

Total: 132.1

Bench: Doug Baldwin, Chris Thompson, Dez Bryant, Dallas Goedert, Baker Mayfield, Antonio Callaway, Davonta Freeman, Cam Meredith, Larry Fitzgerald, Jamaal Charles

FAAB Rankings

Me:         814
Team 1: 495 (Mahomes, McCaffrey, Conner, Beckham, Golladay, Njoku, J. Gordon)
Team 2: 310 (Wentz, Cohen, Michel, Thielen, K. Allen, Ebron, Edelman, Tate, Stills)
Team 3: 300 (Ryan, Kamara, Ingram, J. Jones, Duke Johnson, Sanu, Burton)
Team 4: 180 (Rodgers, Elliott, J. White,  M. Jones, Evans, Ertz, Mack, Reed, Fuller)
Team 5: 146 (Dalton, Breida, K. Johnson, AJ Green, Smith-Schuster, Chubb, T. Hill)
Team 6: 110 (Brady, David Johnson, L. Miller, Sanders, Hilton, Gronk, Crabtree)
Team 7: 38 (Stafford, Gurley, Hopkins, Brown, Goodwin, Blue, Boyd, Garcon)
Team 8: 0 (Brees, Barkley, Drake, Cooks, Woods, Olsen, Howard, Robinson)
Team 9: 0 (Luck, M. Gordon, Peterson, M. Thomas, D. Thomas, M. Williams, Graham)

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