My Guillotine League: Week 8 Recap and Week 9 Preview

In this series, I track weekly progress in my guillotine league. For the main post, covering the league’s details and my overall Bid Low, Bid Late strategy, click here.

Week 8 Post-Mortem

Last week I was nervous about losing. I came in 4th out of 10 teams with 151.1 PPR points. I was right to be nervous about Alshon Jeffery and Doug Baldwin, but Newton, Kelce, Mixon and Watkins all came through with 20 or more points (o.k, I’m rounding up Kelce’s 19.9). I took a gamble on Shady McCoy and he not only started but got a respectable 15.5 points.

My Week 8 Lineup

QB: Cam Newton 28
RB: Joe Mixon 28.8
RB: Chris Thompson 4.2
WR: Jarvis Landry 11.9
WR: Doug Baldwin 4.6
TE: Travis Kelce 19.9
Flex: Alshon Jeffery 7.5
Flex: Sammy Watkins 30.7
Flex: LeSean McCoy 15.5

Total: 151.1

Bench: Corey Davis, Kapri Bibbs, Wendell Smallwood, Dallas Goedert, Trenton Cannon, Antonio Callaway, Devonta Freeman, Frank Gore, Larry Fitzgerald, Marcus Murphy

The Chop

Some great players got guillotined, led by Tyreek Hill, A.J. Green, Juju Smith-Schuster, Kerryon Johnson, and Nick Chubb. Because it was one of the richer teams that got eliminated (146 FAAB), I entered free agency with more FAAB than the rest of the league combined: 782, followed by 310, 260, 90 and 33, with everyone else at 0. I was determined not to blow my huge FAAB advantage, but wanted to significantly improve my team, including at my position of greatest need, running back.

I bid $132 on Tyreek, $62 on Smith-Schuster, $61 on Kerryon, $52 on A.J. Green, and $16 on Chubb. I bid low on Green because he’s on bye this coming week, and on Chubb because other teams’ budgets were so depleted I figured I could get him cheap. I got two out of the five, Kerryon and Chubb going for higher than I thought they would. Here’s what I have to say about Kerryon’s price:

The winning bids were as follows:

Tyreek: 150
Kerryon: 111
Juju: 62
AJ Green: 52
Chubb: 51

I also picked up Ty Montgomery for $1, and Carlos Hyde, who another team had dropped, for $1 later in the week. I dropped most of my backup and fill-in running backs to make room.

I’m happy with my new additions, but only Smith-Schuster is startable this week.

FAAB Totals

Me: 666
Others:
135 (Thielen, Keenan Allen, Kerryon, Michel, Kittle)
110 (Kamara, Ingram, Julio, Tyreek)
90 (Mahomes, Hunt, Conner, Diggs, McCaffrey, Beckham)
23 (Gurley, Hopkins, Antonio Brown)
0 (Peterson, Melvin Gordon, Michael Thomas)
0 (Rodgers, James White, Elliott, Evans, Davante Adams, Lev Bell)
0 (Woods, Cooks,  Howard, Saquon)
0 (Gronk, Hilton, David Johnson, Lamar Miller, Dalvin Cook)

That’s a little less than double the rest of the league combined. A very good position to be in.

Deflation

Tyreek’s price of $150 is down from $777 after Week 2. Jack Doyle had a similar ratio: $77 after Week 2, $11 after Week 8. That’s an deflation rate of about 25% per week, on average. Although I don’t think it makes sense to average, because it’s more like there was a sharp drop in the last last couple of weeks. Half the team in the league have no FAAB, meaning they’re on the decline while

Outlook

I was feeling good before Chris Thompson got injured. Four out of 9 teams have a 0 budget and can’t add top players, so while I am improving my team with players like Smith-Schuster, they can only add marginal players. Smith-Schuster is helping me offset bye weeks for my best RB, Joe Mixon, and my best WR, Alshon Jeffery. ESPN’s prediction engine has me finishing 4th out of 9 with 132 points. Some of my starters seem to have good matchups: Cam Newton vs. Tampa Bay, and Landry and Callaway vs. Kansas City.

Without Chris Thompson I suddenly feel more exposed. Kapri Bibbs is questionable to start, so I picked up Devontae Booker, who at least I know is healthy. My other RB is Shady McCoy. These are not the two RBs I want to start at this point in the season.

Still, some other teams have good players on bye and are rolling with not great options. Saquon’s team is starting Breida and Drake at RB. David Johnson’s team is going with Lamar Miller and Peyton Barber.

Most importantly, it’s still early enough in the season to rely on chance. Eight out of nine teams will survive, which is 89%. I’d give my team a slightly below average grade, but I would still put my odds at 85% or better.

Starting Lineup

As of Saturday morning:

QB: Cam Newton
RB: LeSean McCoy
RB: Devontae Booker
WR: Doug Baldwin
WR: Jarvis Landry
TE: Travis Kelce
FLEX: Juju Smith-Schuster
FLEX: Sammy Watkins
FLEX: Antonio Callaway

Week 10 Early Preview

At this point in the season you know there will be some juicy free agents coming soon. Players on the three teams with the lowest predicted scores this week include:

Lowest projected team: Gronk, Hilton, David Johnson, Lamar Miller, Dalvin Cook
Second lowest: Woods, Cooks,  Howard, Saquon
Third lowest: Peterson, Melvin Gordon, Michael Thomas

Notably, all three of these teams have zero budgets. Interesting that three of the four teams that spent their entire FAAB budget in the first half of the season are at the greatest risk of elimination in Week 9.

If I survive the week, I welcome A.J. Green to my lineup next week, and welcome Joe Mixon and Alshon Jeffery back. None of my starters will be on bye, and the matchups don’t look bad.

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