Guillotine League Week 14: Quarterfinals

In this series, I track weekly progress in my guillotine league. For the main post, covering the league’s details and my overall Bid Low, Bid Late strategy, click here.

Quick write-up this time because I’ve been sick and because it’s not been that interesting of a week.

I scored 190.1 points in Week 13 but only finished second. One team got 193.8. The others were significantly behind at 137.2 and 144.1. I was right to subtitle last week’s article “David Johnson Dragging Me Down”. He scored 8.2 points, and Newton also disappointed with 15.3. On the other hand, Kelce scored 38.8 and  Gurley got 31.5.

My Week 13 Lineup

QB: Cam Newton 15.3
RB: Saquon Barkley 17.6
RB: Todd Gurley 31.5
WR: Adam Thielen 13.8
WR: DeAndre Hopkins 16.1
TE: Travis Kelce 38.8
Flex: David Johnson 8.2
Flex: Ezekiel Elliott 25.5
Flex: Davante Adams 23.3

Total: 190.1

Bench: Gronk, Edelman, Michel, D. Cook, Boyd, Ertz, Evans, Ekeler, James White, Ebron

The Chop

This will be the last week in which no really exciting players are dropped to waivers. The top dropped players were: Robert Woods, Brees, Juju, Brandin Cooks, and Mixon. Other than Brees, I think these are all top-19 options but not starters in Week 16.

Starting the waiver period with a 160-40 FAAB advantage, I bid low both because I don’t think any of these players are sure Week 16 starters, and to preserve a FAAB advantage. I got Woods for $11, Juju for $8, Mixon for $7 and Cooks for $6, a total of $32. My opponent spent $10 on Brees and $5 on Jaylen Samuels. My FAAB advantage increased as a result, from a 4:1 to more than a 5:1 advantage at 127 – 25.

Deflation

Outlook

My rest of season outlook has improved due to a series of misfortunes befalling my strongest opponent. He had Kareem Hunt and Emmanuel Sanders on his team, both of whom are out for the season. He also has James Conner, who may be out for multiple games, and OBJ, who is out for this week at least. Despite having Mahomes, McCaffrey, Brown and Lindsay, he is at risk of not surviving the week.

My outlook this week is fine. My team is better than the others, and the only cause of loss would be bad luck, which of course can’t be controlled for. The fewer teams left, the more chance that I’m the team with the outlying bad luck performance.

ESPN gives my team the highest projection at 184.6. No other team is close. The other three teams are at 168.5, 139.4, and 126.1.

The survival calculator says I have a 99.8% chance of surviving, assuming the ESPN projected team points as means, and assuming a standard deviation of 15.

Starting Lineup

My starting lineup will probably look like this.

QB: Cam Newton
RB: Saquon Barkley
RB: Todd Gurley
WR: Adam Thielen
WR: DeAndre Hopkins
TE: Travis Kelce
FLEX: David Johnson
FLEX: Ezekiel Elliott
FLEX: Davante Adams

I might start Juju in place of the inconsistent David Johnson. Johnson is projected higher by ESPN but Juju’s Oakland matchup looks mighty tempting.

Good luck to all who have survived to this point!

 

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