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Guillotine Leagues: Week 16

It was the final week of the three week playoff, and I entered with a lead. Despite some bad luck and a wrong start/sit decision, I was able to hang on and win, thanks mostly to to Saquon Barkley. The bad luck was mostly starting D.J. Moore, who got concussed early and ended up with one reception for one yard. It was a little bit the Ingram injury that caused him to miss a quarter of the game, and maybe that touchdown that Justice Hill got. The bad start/sit decision was Russell Wilson over Drew Brees. I played the matchup over the hot streak, and that turned out to be the wrong move. In all, I left about 60 points on the table by starting Wilson in two out of the three games in the playoff.

But in the end, it didn’t matter. I entered Monday night’s game solidly in second place and 13 points behind first, with the first place team having nobody, and me having Davante Adams. He scored enough points to win. The third place team needed more than 50 points from Aaron Rodgers to catch me, which did not happen. So, I won first place.

That’s it for the season. Now it is time to reflect on the strategy I used in the Fanball leagues, which might be pointless since it seems clear that Fanball will be changing its guillotine league rules.

Anyway, I do not expect to post for a while. I hope you got some use out of my writing this season.

 

Guillotine Leagues: Week 15

It was Week 2 of Fanball’s 3-week playoff. I went from worst to first. Last week, I lamented that starting Russell Wilson instead of Drew Brees was the difference between first and last. The scores were just about 140 – 120 – 120 – 100.

This week, my team crushed it. I started Drew Brees, who scored close to 40 points in Fanball’s 6-points-per-pass-TD system. Zeke Elliott and Saquon Barkley also scored over 30 points. Davante Adams, Travis Kelce and Mark Ingram scored over 20 points. My only sub-20 player was Stefon Diggs, with 12. Overall, my team scored 185 points, and now leads 284 – 272 – 257 – 253. It is a pretty close match which should make for an exciting weekend.

I’m going to be with family in Canada this weekend, which I hope won’t interfere with team management. I will probably need to remember to check injury updates at noon on Sunday without my phone reminding me.

Good luck to all out there who made the championship week!

Guillotine Leagues: Week 13

There are no more waivers in Fanball leagues, so I’m writing this just for the 2 or 3 of you who are interested in my teams, to update you about my tragic week.

At my last update, I was surviving in 3 out of my original 9 leagues. In my Fanball leagues, there were no waivers left, so Week 13 rosters were final rosters. I was reasonable well-positioned, with good starters and at least decent backups in every position, including quarterback and tight end. In my ESPN league, I had enough FAAB advantage to ensure that I get my pick of the free agents for the rest of the season.

On Thanksgiving, disaster struck. I was sick and had a sleepless night, which is not too uncommon, but we also went to Thanksgiving dinner at a relative’s house, which meant drinking and parenting my two little kids, with no time to recover until the late afternoon. I crashed into the guest bed for a long nap, and slept through the news that Julio Jones was out. Not switching out Julio for Davante Adams was fatal. That 24-point swing was the difference between last place and 2nd place. So I’m eliminated in my Green Knights league.

In my ESPN league, I just had bad games from many players and no really good games from anyone. Mahomes 19.5 was not great, and then I got 10.7 from Lev Bell, 8.9 from Nik Chubb, 6.7 from DJ Chark, 10.1 from Tyreek Hill, 5.4 from Zack Ertz, and 0 from Tyler Lockett. My highest position player scores were 18.8 from Keenan Allen, 16.7 from Austin Ekeler, and 13.4 from Dalvin Cook. These would be okay top scores in Week 5, but in Week 13 they mean elimination. In retrospect, starting Lockett and Dalvin Cook were mistakes, since both had been cleared to start after injury concerns.  I lost by 7 points, which means that if I had started any 2 backups (other than Julio Jones) over Lockett and Cook – any 2 of Calvin Ridley, Saquon Barkley, Amari Cooper, Cooper Kupp, Chris Carson, and Todd Gurley – I would have survived. In fact, my 7 active bench players (the above plus Deshaun Watson) scored nearly as many points as my 11 starters, getting outscored only 133.7 – 131.9.

That leaves me alive in only one league. My starters this week for Team The Bourgeoisie are:

QB: Russell Wilson
RB: Zeke Elliott
RB: Mark Ingram
WR: Davante Adams
WR: Stefon Diggs
TE: Travis Kelce
FLEX: Josh Jacobs

My bench has Drew Brees, Saquon Barkley, D.J. Moore, Jarvis Landry, and Jacob Hollister.

Here is my competition. The names are made up to avoid putting people’s handles in my blog.

Team Lamar

QB: Lamar Jackson
RB: Dalvin Cook
RB: Alvin Kamara
WR: DeAndre Hopkins
WR: Cooper Kupp
TE: Hunter Henry
FLEX: Tyreek Hill

Bench: Daniel Jones, Melvin Gordon, Philip Lindsay, Odell Beckham, Mark Andrews

Team Mahomes

QB: Patrick Mahomes
RB: Leonard Fournette
RB: Aaron Jones
WR: Michael Thomas
WR: Tyler Lockett
TE: Darren Waller
FLEX: Austin Ekeler

Bench: Dak Prescott, James White, Kenny Golladay, Sammy Watkins, Ryan Griffin

Team Rodgers

QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Todd Gurley
RB: Derrick Henry
WR: Chris Godwin
WR: Julio Jones
TE: Jared Cook
FLEX: Keenan Allen

Bench: Kyler Murray, Kenyan Drake, Tevin Coleman, D.J. Chark, Greg Olsen

The owner of Team Rodgers bragged right after the draft that he will win the league. I think he finishes 4th.

The next 3 weeks are playoffs, and the winner is determined by cumulative points.

Good luck to all the teams out there that made the playoffs!

 

Guillotine Leagues: Week 12

Last week of the regular season in Fanball, which means the last week of FAAB. Here’s how it went. Not sure how useful this is – the FAAB discrepancies from league to league are insane. Hence, the three highest spending totals are all from the same league (Jacobs and Wilson were my acquisitions), and Kenyan Drake went for $42. In other leagues, Zeke Elliott is going for $4 and Chubb for $1. In honor of the last week, here are *all* the bids.

FAAB Report

Julian Edelman: 305, 58
Josh Jacobs: 254, 71, 9
Russell Wilson: 104
Zeke Elliott: 95, 9, 4
Patrick Mahomes: 60
Adam Thielen: 58
Kenyan Drake: 42
Mark Ingram: 30
Hunter Henry: 24
Melvin Gordon: 21
Jameis Winston: 20, 1
DJ Moore: 20, 9
Alvin Kamara: 18
Tyreek Hill: 18
Christian McCaffrey: 15
Courtland Sutton: 15
Aaron Jones: 12
Austin Hooper: 10, 1, 1
Dak Prescott: 10, 1, 1
Nick Chubb: 10, 1
Le’Veon Bell: 10, 1
Kenny Golladay: 10
Calvin Ridley: 10
Saquon Barkley: 9
Greg Olsen: 8, 2
Odell Beckham: 7
Keenan Allen: 6
Kyler Murray: 6, 5
Jared Cook: 5
Stefon Diggs: 5
Chris Godwin: 5
Amari Cooper: 4
Mark Andrews: 3, 1
Cooper Kupp: 3
Ryan Griffin: 3
Philip Lindsay: 2
Austin Ekeler: 2, 1
Darren Waller: 2
Christian Kirk: 1
Jarvis Landry: 1
Jack Doyle: 1
Chris Carson: 1
Josh Allen: 1
Todd Gurley: 1
Jonathan Williams: 1
Daniel Jones: 1
Devin Singletary: 1

No FAAB report because FAAB doesn’t matter anymore.

Good luck everyone!

 

Guillotine Leagues: Week 11

I survived easily in my three remaining leagues, and ended up in far better FAAB position than the week before. In my ESPN league, the only other team with substantial FAAB got eliminated. The result: at waiver time I had 442 FAAB, and no other team had more than 5. That means that for the rest of the season, I can just get whatever player I want for $6 or less. So I picked up Chris Carson, Dalvin Cook,  Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill, and Tyler Lockett for a grand total of $30.

In my Fanball league where I had a substantial FAAB disadvantage to the top team, and was basically tied with another team, they both went on spending sprees, so I’m now basically even with one and asvantged over the others. Of course, I missed out on good waivers due to their spending sprees, so I’m feeling at a bit of a disadvantage for survival this week.

Here’s the spending report:

Austin Hooper: 153 (! Nobody else bid on him. AFAIK he is injured)
Nick Chubb: 112
Chris Carson: 101, 21
Michael Thomas: 99 (my bid – to guarantee I got him over the team with 98 FAAB)
Russell Wilson: 99
Aaron Rodgers: 88
Tyreek Hill: 85
Mike Evans: 82, 65, 47
Amari Cooper: 72, 51
Deshaun Watson: 72, 50, 31, 22
Saquon Barkley: 71
Travis Kelce: 51
DJ Moore: 51, 19
Mark Andrews: 50
DeAndre Hopkins: 39
Tyler Lockett: 33, 32, 21
Zeke Elliott: 33
Derrick Henry: 33
Davante Adams: 25
Todd Gurley: 22, 11
Dak Prescott: 22
George Kittle: 22, 15
Leonard Fournette: 22
Hunter Henry: 21
Cooper Kupp: 20
James Conner: 20
Jacob Hollister: 17
DJ Chark: 15
Odell Beckham: 14
Julian Edelman: 11
Austin Ekeler: 11

Remaining FAAB: not much. There’s one guy in one league who still has his original 1000 FAAB. I don’t know if he’s asleep at the wheel, trying to prove a point, or just adopting too extreme a version of the spend low, spend late strategy that I recommend. With only one week left of waivers, you should *not* have 1000 FAAB at this point – you should have been building your team in the last few weeks.

Here are the totals, for the remaining 42 teams:
901 – 1000: 1
801 – 900: 0
701 – 800: 0
601 – 700: 0
501 – 600: 0
401 – 500: 0
301 – 400: 2
201 – 300: 1
101 – 200: 2
0 – 100: 36

Good luck to everyone in Week 12!

Guillotine Leagues: Week 10

What a week. I lost two of my four remaining Fanball leagues, so I went from feeling good about things to feeling not so good. In one of my two remaining leagues, I’m not thrilled with my team, and another team has played the FAAB waiting game much better than me and leads me in FAAB, 798 – 388. I feel like I’m playing for second place in that one. Here’s my team, called The Bourgeoisie:

QB: Drew Brees
RB: Mark Ingram
RB: Ezekiel Elliott
WR: Stefon Diggs
WR: Christian Kirk (who saved my bacon last week)
TE: Travis Kelce
FLEX: Jarvis Landry

Bench: Mixon, Miles Sanders, Barkley, Jeffery, Davante Adams.

Here’s the team that’s killing me in FAAB:

QB: Jameis Winston
RB: Le’Veon Bell
RB: Christian McCaffrey
WR: John Brown
WR: Michael Gallup
TE: Zach Ertz
FLEX: Marlon Mack

Bench: Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, David Montgomery, Courtland Sutton, George Kittle

My other Fanball team is Green Knights, where I’m much happier with my players and lead in FAAB, with 267. The other teams have 98, 70, 40, 40, 35, 5 and 0.

My lineup is:

QB: Pat Mahomes
RB: Le’Veon Bell
RB: Mark Ingram
WR: Julio Jones
WR: Tyreek Hill
TE: Hunter Henry
FLEX: Christian McCaffrey

Bench: Kareem Hunt, Todd Gurley, Chris Godwin, Davante Adams, Kenny Golladay.

My two eliminated teams were Team Jacobin and Team Sydney Carton. Team Jacobin started Russell Wilson, Mark Ingram, Todd Gurley, Keenan Allen, Julio Jones, Darren Waller, and Odell Beckham. Team Sydney Carton started Drew Brees, Josh Jacobs, Todd Gurley, Emmanuel Sanders, Keenan Allen, Jason Witten, and Julio Jones. I think both teams were better on paper than some of the competitors, so losing was unlucky, but then luck management is wha guillotine leagues are all about.

In my ESPN league, which is superflex + 4 flex, I trailed much of the week and only survived because of Amari Cooper’s huge game. I drafted very well and was able to be restrained in my FAAB spending, with the result that I have a pretty good lineup:

QB: Deshaun Watson
RB: Ronald Jones
RB: Le’Veon Bell
WR: Amari Cooper
WR: Cooper Kupp
TE: Zach Ertz
FLEX: Courtland Sutton
FLEX: Austin Ekeler
FLEX: DJ Chark
FLEX: Keenan Allen
Supeflex: Josh Allen

Bench: Calvin Ridley, Sterling Shepard, Aaron Rodgers, A.J. Green, Saquon Barkley, Sammy Watkins, Juju Smith-Schuster, Derrius Guice.

FAAB-wise, I have 442. The other 6 teams have 190, 5, 2, 2, 1, and 0. This league has $0 bids, though.

 

Free Agent Report

Here’s every free agent that went for over 10 FAAB in my Fanball leagues:

Alvin Kamara: 472(!), 93
DeAndre Hopkins: 284, 119
Christian McCaffrey 144
Dalvin Cook: 125
Josh Jacobs: 100, 30
Zeke Elliott: 93
Chris Godwin: 75, 50, 32, 29
Cooper Kupp: 60, 26
Derrick Henry: 51
Mark Ingram: 39, 11
Zach Ertz: 32, 12
Keenan Allen: 31
Deshaun Watson: 31
George Kittle: 30
Julio Jones: 23, 23
John Broen: 21
Darren Waller: 21, 19
Tom Brady: 20
Russell Wilson: 20, 20
Jarvis Landry: 17
Le’Von Bell: 13
Philip Lindsay: 11
Christian Kirk: 11
Julian Edelman: 11
Devonta Freeman: 11
Melvin Gordon: 10

FAAB Report

Out of 49 teams left, only 12 have more than 100 points and only two have more than 500. Here’s the breakdown:

901 – 1000: 1
801 .- 900: 0
701 – 800: 1
601 – 700: 0
501 – 600: 0
401 – 500: 0
301 – 400: 2
201 – 300: 2
101 – 200: 6
0 – 100: 37

Good luck in Week 11!