Guillotine Leagues: Week 11

I survived easily in my three remaining leagues, and ended up in far better FAAB position than the week before. In my ESPN league, the only other team with substantial FAAB got eliminated. The result: at waiver time I had 442 FAAB, and no other team had more than 5. That means that for the rest of the season, I can just get whatever player I want for $6 or less. So I picked up Chris Carson, Dalvin Cook,  Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill, and Tyler Lockett for a grand total of $30.

In my Fanball league where I had a substantial FAAB disadvantage to the top team, and was basically tied with another team, they both went on spending sprees, so I’m now basically even with one and asvantged over the others. Of course, I missed out on good waivers due to their spending sprees, so I’m feeling at a bit of a disadvantage for survival this week.

Here’s the spending report:

Austin Hooper: 153 (! Nobody else bid on him. AFAIK he is injured)
Nick Chubb: 112
Chris Carson: 101, 21
Michael Thomas: 99 (my bid – to guarantee I got him over the team with 98 FAAB)
Russell Wilson: 99
Aaron Rodgers: 88
Tyreek Hill: 85
Mike Evans: 82, 65, 47
Amari Cooper: 72, 51
Deshaun Watson: 72, 50, 31, 22
Saquon Barkley: 71
Travis Kelce: 51
DJ Moore: 51, 19
Mark Andrews: 50
DeAndre Hopkins: 39
Tyler Lockett: 33, 32, 21
Zeke Elliott: 33
Derrick Henry: 33
Davante Adams: 25
Todd Gurley: 22, 11
Dak Prescott: 22
George Kittle: 22, 15
Leonard Fournette: 22
Hunter Henry: 21
Cooper Kupp: 20
James Conner: 20
Jacob Hollister: 17
DJ Chark: 15
Odell Beckham: 14
Julian Edelman: 11
Austin Ekeler: 11

Remaining FAAB: not much. There’s one guy in one league who still has his original 1000 FAAB. I don’t know if he’s asleep at the wheel, trying to prove a point, or just adopting too extreme a version of the spend low, spend late strategy that I recommend. With only one week left of waivers, you should *not* have 1000 FAAB at this point – you should have been building your team in the last few weeks.

Here are the totals, for the remaining 42 teams:
901 – 1000: 1
801 – 900: 0
701 – 800: 0
601 – 700: 0
501 – 600: 0
401 – 500: 0
301 – 400: 2
201 – 300: 1
101 – 200: 2
0 – 100: 36

Good luck to everyone in Week 12!

Guillotine Leagues: Week 10

What a week. I lost two of my four remaining Fanball leagues, so I went from feeling good about things to feeling not so good. In one of my two remaining leagues, I’m not thrilled with my team, and another team has played the FAAB waiting game much better than me and leads me in FAAB, 798 – 388. I feel like I’m playing for second place in that one. Here’s my team, called The Bourgeoisie:

QB: Drew Brees
RB: Mark Ingram
RB: Ezekiel Elliott
WR: Stefon Diggs
WR: Christian Kirk (who saved my bacon last week)
TE: Travis Kelce
FLEX: Jarvis Landry

Bench: Mixon, Miles Sanders, Barkley, Jeffery, Davante Adams.

Here’s the team that’s killing me in FAAB:

QB: Jameis Winston
RB: Le’Veon Bell
RB: Christian McCaffrey
WR: John Brown
WR: Michael Gallup
TE: Zach Ertz
FLEX: Marlon Mack

Bench: Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, David Montgomery, Courtland Sutton, George Kittle

My other Fanball team is Green Knights, where I’m much happier with my players and lead in FAAB, with 267. The other teams have 98, 70, 40, 40, 35, 5 and 0.

My lineup is:

QB: Pat Mahomes
RB: Le’Veon Bell
RB: Mark Ingram
WR: Julio Jones
WR: Tyreek Hill
TE: Hunter Henry
FLEX: Christian McCaffrey

Bench: Kareem Hunt, Todd Gurley, Chris Godwin, Davante Adams, Kenny Golladay.

My two eliminated teams were Team Jacobin and Team Sydney Carton. Team Jacobin started Russell Wilson, Mark Ingram, Todd Gurley, Keenan Allen, Julio Jones, Darren Waller, and Odell Beckham. Team Sydney Carton started Drew Brees, Josh Jacobs, Todd Gurley, Emmanuel Sanders, Keenan Allen, Jason Witten, and Julio Jones. I think both teams were better on paper than some of the competitors, so losing was unlucky, but then luck management is wha guillotine leagues are all about.

In my ESPN league, which is superflex + 4 flex, I trailed much of the week and only survived because of Amari Cooper’s huge game. I drafted very well and was able to be restrained in my FAAB spending, with the result that I have a pretty good lineup:

QB: Deshaun Watson
RB: Ronald Jones
RB: Le’Veon Bell
WR: Amari Cooper
WR: Cooper Kupp
TE: Zach Ertz
FLEX: Courtland Sutton
FLEX: Austin Ekeler
FLEX: DJ Chark
FLEX: Keenan Allen
Supeflex: Josh Allen

Bench: Calvin Ridley, Sterling Shepard, Aaron Rodgers, A.J. Green, Saquon Barkley, Sammy Watkins, Juju Smith-Schuster, Derrius Guice.

FAAB-wise, I have 442. The other 6 teams have 190, 5, 2, 2, 1, and 0. This league has $0 bids, though.

 

Free Agent Report

Here’s every free agent that went for over 10 FAAB in my Fanball leagues:

Alvin Kamara: 472(!), 93
DeAndre Hopkins: 284, 119
Christian McCaffrey 144
Dalvin Cook: 125
Josh Jacobs: 100, 30
Zeke Elliott: 93
Chris Godwin: 75, 50, 32, 29
Cooper Kupp: 60, 26
Derrick Henry: 51
Mark Ingram: 39, 11
Zach Ertz: 32, 12
Keenan Allen: 31
Deshaun Watson: 31
George Kittle: 30
Julio Jones: 23, 23
John Broen: 21
Darren Waller: 21, 19
Tom Brady: 20
Russell Wilson: 20, 20
Jarvis Landry: 17
Le’Von Bell: 13
Philip Lindsay: 11
Christian Kirk: 11
Julian Edelman: 11
Devonta Freeman: 11
Melvin Gordon: 10

FAAB Report

Out of 49 teams left, only 12 have more than 100 points and only two have more than 500. Here’s the breakdown:

901 – 1000: 1
801 .- 900: 0
701 – 800: 1
601 – 700: 0
501 – 600: 0
401 – 500: 0
301 – 400: 2
201 – 300: 2
101 – 200: 6
0 – 100: 37

Good luck in Week 11!

Guillotine Leagues: Week 9

I pulled a Homer in Week 9, succeeding despite dropping my QB Josh Allen for Drew Brees, who was on bye. Luckily I had Emmanuel Sanders, Zach Ertz and Mel Gordon go off for about 24 points each in that league, and survived easily. In fact, I survived easily in all of my leagues. Going into Week 10 with five of my original 9 teams surviving, decent lineups, and FAAB totals ranging from good to dominant, I am feeling good about my performance this year.

Here’s the spending report, listing all players who were auctioned for more than 15 FAAB in my seven Fanball leagues.

Saquon Barkley: 408, 123
Ezekiel Elliott: 221
Michael Thomas: 197
DeAndre Hopkins: 141
Chris Godwin: 125
Aaron Jones: 120, 56, 40
Pat Mahomes: 89
Davante Adams: 83, 82
David Johnson: 81, 22
Lamar Jackson: 79
Emmanuel Sanders: 71
Odell Beckham: 70
James Conner: 69
Devin Singletary: 67
Derrick Henry: 60
Josh Jacobs: 53
Kyler Murray: 51
Keenan Allen: 48, 41
Marlon Mack: 42
Le’Veon Bell: 31
Evan Engram: 31
Todd Gurley: 30
Drew Brees: 24, 17
Christian Kirk: 22
Melvin Gordon: 21
Julian Edelman: 17

FAAB Report

FAAB is getting so scarce, I don’t even want to dwell on it anymore. Of the 56 remaining teams, here are the FAAB distributions.

901 – 1000: 1
801 – 900: 1
701 – 800: 0
601 – 700: 0
501 – 600: 4
401 – 500: 2
301 – 400: 1
201 – 300: 3
101 – 200: 15
0 – 100: 29

Good luck in Week 10!

 

 

 

Guillotine Leagues: Week 8 Recap

One of my Fanball teams lost this week: Rusty Blades. This was the league where I picked first overall and got Zeke Elliott in the first, A.J. Green in the second (before he got injured), and Kerryon Johnson in the third.

It’s hard to do a postmortem because such is my life that I can’t remember what happened almost a week ago. I do know that not too long after this draft, I came to the view that picking Zeke #1 was a mistake, because his unpopulated bye week. That is, not many star players shared his bye weeks, meaning a big disadvantage for the team that had to bench him. And indeed, in my seven Fanball leagues, the team that had Elliott lost in three of them.

I have a vague recollection that I left myself without adequate RBs in this league, too. I wish I could go back and check my lineup on Fanball, but this does not seem to be an option.

This week, I am facing another loss because of another huge unforced error: I didn’t check the bye week schedule when bidding, and ended up with Drew Brees as my only QB in my team Sydney Carton. It doesn’t help that Julio Jones, Todd Gurley and Robert Woods are all on the bench in that league. At least Emmanuel Sanders’ performance on Thursday night has me currently in first place.

Free Agent Report

The teams that have lots of FAAB are still spending lots of FAAB. Here are the players who went for 20 or more:

Ezekiel Elliott: 351, 311, 252
Michael Thomas: 301
Travis Kelce: 248
Keenan Allen: 225, 134, 110
Mark Andrews: 150
DeAndre Hopkins: 147
Evan Engram: 103
Stefon Diggs: 88
Tyreek Hill: 82
Julio Jones: 78
Todd Gurley: 75
Odell Beckham: 71
TY Hilton: 69
Zach Ertz: 51
Darren Waller: 51
Matt Ryan: 51
Le’Veon Bell: 50
Sony Michel: 47
Mel Gordon: 41
Hunter Henry: 38
Curtis Samuel: 35, 20
Mohamed Sanu: 33
Michael Gallup: 27
Mark Ingram: 25
Matt Ryan: 25
Darren Fells: 22
John Brown: 22
Russell Wilson: 22
Sammy Watkins: 21
DK Metcalf: 21, 21
Jordan Howard: 20
Tyrell Williams: 20

Wealth Report

Out of 63 remaining teams, only 8 (13%) have more than 500 FAAB. Four of those are my teams, so among my competition, only 4 (6%) have more than 500. Forty teams (63%) have 200 FAAB or less, while 27 teams (43%) have 100 FAAB or less. If I didn’t keep making inattention-based mistakes, I would be feeling very good about my performance. Here’s the breakdown:

901 – 1000: 1
801 – 900: 1
701 – 800: 1
601 – 700: 2
501 – 600: 3
401 – 500: 3
301 – 400: 3
201 – 300: 9
101 – 200: 13
0 – 100: 27

Onward. Good luck to everyone in Week 9!

 

Guillotine Leagues: Week 7 Recap

Week 7 is over, and guillotine leagues are now 10-team leagues.

I survived in all my leagues, again. For the second week in a row, I made the dumb mistake of failing to substitute Tyreek Hill for Dede Westbrook, but no harm resulted, since Dede ended up with more points this week.

The average score for the 5 teams that got chopped in my leagues was 55.97. If you scored 63 points, you were safe in all my leagues. Here is the average score of chopped teams in certain other weeks.

Week 2: 62.6
Week 3: 70.45
Week 5: 73.95
Week 6: 69.1

I got this information from e-mails sent to me by Fanball, but I did not get e-mails in weeks 1 and 4.

Spending Report

For the first time, nobody spent over 500 on a player. Nobody even spent 400. Spending is reaching the point where I’m getting some good players: I got Ingram for 79, Keenan Allen for 65, Hunter Henry for 44, Julian Edelman for 43, Emmanuel Sanders for 35, Brandin Cooks for 31, Kareem Hunt for 22, and LeSean McCoy for 19. Here are the players in my 7 leagues who went for 20 or more FAAB:

Josh Jacobs: 357, 211, 175
Christian McCaffrey: 355
Leonard Fournette: 271
Cooper Kupp: 240
Patrick Mahomes: 240
Alvin Kamara: 204
Deshaun Watson: 201, 57
James Conner: 200, 125, 95
Nick Chubb: 175, 127
Julio Jones: 145
Chris Godwin: 126, 91
Dak Prescott: 99
Tyler Lockett: 87
Todd Gurley: 80, 75, 67
Mark Ingram: 79
Kenny Golladay: 77
Ty Johnson: 77, 33, 29
D.J. Chark: 70
Keenan Allen: 65
George Kittle: 52
Adam Thielen: 51
Davante Adams: 51
Mike Evans: 51
Kirk Cousins: 51
Mohamed Sanu: 51
Jacoby Brissett: 46
Kenny Stills: 46
Brandin Cooks: 44, 31
Hunter Henry: 44
Julian Edelman: 43
Amari Cooper: 38
Zach Ertz: 35
Emmanuel Sanders: 35
Matt Stafford: 33, 26
Marvin Jones: 33, 25
Calvin Ridley: 33, 25
Tom Brady: 33
Latavius Murray: 31
Jameis Winston: 31
Kyler Murray: 26
Philip Rivers: 24
Marques Valdez-Scantling: 22
Kareem Hunt: 22
Jimmy Graham: 21
LeSean McCoy: 21

Budget Report

There are 70 teams left, of which a grand total of 13 (19%) have over 500 FAAB. If you take away my 5 teams, all over 700, then only 8 out of 65 teams (12%) have half their FAAB left. In comparison, 26 teams (37%) have less than 10% of their budget left. Here’s the distribution:

901 – 1000: 2
801 – 900: 1
701 – 800: 5
601 – 700: 1
501 – 600: 4
401 – 500: 5
301 – 400: 7
201 – 300: 11
101 – 200: 8
0 – 100: 26

Good luck surviving week 8, and Happy Halloween!